The Underrated Career of J.D. Martinez

Career Peak

2014 was just the start of a fantastic peak for J.D. Martinez. He followed up that success with a .282/.344/.535 batting line, 38 home runs, his first all-star appearance, first Silver Slugger, and even garnering some MVP votes. While his .897 OPS is great, it would be his lowest in a six-season stretch from 2014 through 2019. Moreover, his 139 OPS+ was tied with 2019 for his lowest over that same stretch. Due to his limited defensive abilities, Martinez only ranks 22nd in fWAR from 2014-2019. However, his .398 wOBA, .581 SLG, 151 wRC+, .307 BA, 207 HR, and 585 RBI all place him among the top-six hitters in baseball during that span.

In 2017, J.D. Martinez was traded from the Detroit Tigers to the Arizona Diamondbacks and went on to have one of the best second halves in recent memory which even led to him receiving NL MVP votes. By the look of his first-half numbers, 2017 was shaping up to be Martinez’s best season. In 57 games, Martinez his 16 home runs with a .630 SLG, 1.018 OPS, and 165 OPS+. After the trade, Martinez posted otherworldly numbers in the desert. He hit 29 home runs in 29 home runs in just 62 games, posting a .741 SLG, 1.107 OPS, and 170 OPS+. His numbers on the season averaged out to .303/.376/.630, 1.066 OPS, 168 OPS+, and 45 home runs.

2018 Season

The best year of Martinez’s career came in 2018, fresh off signing a 5-year/$110 million contract with the Boston Red Sox. However, teams are understandably weary of signing a 30-year-old DH to a long-term contract. It took until late February of 2018 for Martinez to find a home in Boston and he immediately rewarded them with excellence. Mookie Betts may have won the AL MVP that year, but it is Martinez who was the biggest spark plug in boosting that team to 108 wins and a World Series championship.

Martinez won two Silver Sluggers that year for his offensive work both at the LF and DH positions. He led the majors with 130 runs batted in and 358 total bases. He hit 43 home runs with a .330/.402/.629 batting line en route to making his second all-star team, finishing 4th in MVP voting, and posting career highs in fWAR (5.8) and bWAR (6.7). Funny enough, despite finishing 4th in MVP voting, Martinez actually earned a first-place vote. From a reputation standpoint, this season also cemented the notion that Martinez is underrated. Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts were also splendid in 2018, and even though Betts had an otherworldly season, the Red Sox would not have won the World Series without Martinez.

Post-2018 Career

2019 was another great year for J.D. Martinez, and the last year of his absolute peak, albeit it was not as special as 2018. He hit 36 home runs and drove in 105 runs while posting a .939 OPS. While it was seen as a step back for Martinez from his incredible 2017-2018 stretch, he was still an elite hitter while earning a few more MVP votes and making another all-star team. Martinez’s 2020 season was a weird one as he struggled to find any rhythm as he posted a lowly .680 OPS while Boston placed last in the AL East. It was easy to look at these struggles as just a product of the pandemic-shortened season as many excellent hitters and pitchers struggled.

J.D. Martinez bounced back in 2021, although not quite to his 2014-2019 levels. He still put up another all-star season as he hit .286/.349/.518, good for a .867 OPS and 128 OPS+. Even far from his best, he hit 28 home runs and led the majors with 42 doubles. Boston was back in the playoffs and there’s no doubt Martinez played a big part in that.

Now comes 2022, Martinez’s worst season since his time in Houston. Yet, even his worst comprised a batting line that was 16 percent above league average. With a .790 OPS and 116 OPS+, to go along with 16 home runs and 43 doubles, Martinez proved he can still be a productive hitter. Taking one look at his Baseball Savant page also proves this as he ranked in the 71st percentile or better in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, and barrel rate.

Bounceback and All-Star in 2023

J.D. Martinez was just announced as the starting DH for the 2023 NL All-Star Team. This is a feel-good story for Martinez as there was much doubt about how he’d perform this year. Well, he has already surpassed his entire 2022 home run total in just 65 games. He is batting .263/.305/.576, good for an .881 OPS and 131 OPS+, both his best figures since 2019.

In taking a deeper look, the strikeout rate is way up and the walk rate is way down. However, with a 92.5 mph average exit velocity, he is hitting the ball harder than he has since 2018. His max exit velocity and expected batting average rank in the 80th and 84th percentile, respectively. Meanwhile, in average exit velocity, xwOBA, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and xSLG all rank in the 91st percentile or higher. This higher quality in batted ball data negates the regression in strikeout and walk rates.

Putting up these types of numbers in his age-35 season is remarkable. Most of the public wrote Martinez off as washed-up and old, questioning the Dodgers’ decisions. After the 2022 season he had, it was fair to think there was not much left in the tank. Thankfully, the Dodgers are one of the most well-run organizations in sports. They have unlocked something in Martinez that will no doubt help elongate his career. For a Dodgers team that has been hurt and not yet reached its potential this season, Martinez has been a key cog in that lineup.

Final Thoughts